Sub-Saharan Africa 2013: Striving to Be a More Perfect Continent

A FEEEDS blogspot - putting President Obama's trip into perspective

Sub-Saharan Africa (SSAfrica) today is not your mother's Africa. It is a region that continues to undergo for the most part positive political and economic changes. Many more of its 48 countries are embracing democratic change, holding free and fair elections, and moving forward as key players on the global stage. This does not diminish the serious political and security challenges that remain in certain parts of the region. But every world region has tough issues today, including the U.S., as we grapple with some key economic and social upheavals. However, we do not swipe our entire nation with a negative cloth because of these transformative processes, but see working on these issues as part of our efforts "to strive be a more perfect nation."

Thus, sub-Saharan is doing the same thing -- striving to be a "more perfect continent." Major transformation does take hard work and can also take time. Thus, we should have that same kind of perspective when it comes to SSAfrica. Many nations are moving forward on economic growth in a fairer manner, engaging transparently, globally and with realistic expectations.
Most Americans focus primarily on the negative, but Today's Africa requires a more balanced view, a more balanced lens about the positives as well as the challenges such as the need for more immediate quality of life improvement for the average African as highlighted at numerous World Economic Forums (WEF), including at the 2013 session.

President Obama's upcoming trip to the region on June 26, where he will visit three key African countries -- Tanzania, South Africa, and Senegal -- will show this more balanced lens that we all need to embrace when thinking about this vast, diverse, and strategic continent. Political and economic changes are the order of the day for most of SSAfrica even though there are challenges. Again, the point is: look at each country as its own world, and understand their political, security and economic differences.

Political Pluses:

So what are the political pluses or the "value-chain" contributions that are going on in the region and impacting the global community? (Value-chain in this context means the progress that each African country makes has a positive global political and economic ripple effect.) They are less far and few in-between than you might think. There are a number of countries that have made democracy, transparency, and free and fair elections the order of the day. In April, President Obama hosted presidents from four of these nations -- Sierra Leone, Cape Verde, Malawi, and Senegal -- at the White House because of the huge democratic transitions that have taken place in their countries, particularly Sierra Leone. If you remember it was not too long ago that Sierra Leone was best known for its conflict diamond war, racked with brutal human rights atrocities and child soldiers. Today, Sierra Leone has had two back-to-back free and fair elections, and life there is now marked with both improved economic and social development.

Further political pluses have been seen throughout the region from 2010-2012 onward as many nations continue to become of age with some 11 holding transformative presidential elections in this time period. Nations ranging from Benin, Cape Verde, Ghana, Madagascar, Niger, Nigeria, and Liberia to Senegal, the Seychelles, Republic of Somalia and (chosen by a Federal Parliament) and Zambia have all done so. Kenya's April 2013 elections, although serious post-election ethnic tensions prevail, had results that were eventually declared free and fair, despite President Kenyatta having an indictment cloud hanging over him by the International Criminal Court on violence from the country's last election. Each friendly nation of Kenya's, however, will have to determine how it will handle engaging with President Kenyatta. Others like Botswana, South Africa, Namibia, and Mozambique have been on the right democratic tracks now for decades.

There were of course those countries which held elections during that same time period that still face uphill on moving from a closed governance framework to more open election processes (e.g. Angola, Cameroon, Rwanda, Uganda and Zimbabwe. Zimbabwe will hold elections sometime late fall 2013 and early reports are things will continue not bode well there). There are others such as the Democratic Republic of Congo that continues to face ethnic violence, and insecurity, humanitarian, and human rights challenges.

The Economic Pluses
On to the economic news: Here are some key areas of the economic pluses in the SSAfrica region:

-- Positive Economic & GDP Growth Rates for many countries;
-- Increase Foreign Direct Investment (FDI);
-- Increase in establishment of Africa-focused Equity Funds & Investments; and
-- Reset of Capital Markets in the region (i.e. Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa, Ghana, Uganda, Namibia and Rwanda, were up 33 percent in local currency terms.)

Yes, we have all heard it: Of the 10 fastest growing economies in the world today, seven of those are in sub-Saharan Africa. Botswana, for example, has maintained a double-digit growth rate for the last 10 years; Ghana is still projected to be the in the region for 2013 at 8 percent; Mozambique, Nigeria, Rwanda, Angola, and Zambia enjoyed high single digit growth in 2012.

In sum, these positive economic indicators definitely call for a different look at Africa in 2013: In a phrase: it is a multi-dimensional region with both positive stories, and challenges.

The Other Side of the Coin: The Challenges

Despite the political and economic news noted above, and real changes on the democracy and governance front for a number of Africa countries; there are Challenges that need realpolitik analyses and solutions. The old public diplomacy tool about building "mutual understanding" (which is a not a do-as-I-say-discussion, but a real dialogue) between and among disparate groups about contentious issues needs to come back in vogue.

There are a few issues that still hover over the region such a few more nations still need to embrace the range of democracy pillars (transparency, good governance, respect for human rights, access to good education and health care, poverty reduction, etc.), and adding to these is the specter of what is being called "Jihadism" which has taken hold in several Sahel countries. But even this "catch phrase" is imperfect and does not taken into account the home-grown issues and clash of world view aspects of the various groups and subgroups across the Sahel. Again, the issues are multi-dimensional, and solutions may need to be as well. We hear a lot about a regional approach, but may what we need are country-specific approaches in a regional context.

*NB: Varying figures estimate that females make up 48-50 percent of the continent-wide population

Sanders Makes "New Global Landscape" Speech @ Westminster College

As Woodrow Wilson Visiting Scholar - Sanders makes key National Security Speech

Westminster College invited Woodrow Wilson Visiting Scholar
Dr. Robin Sanders, the former U.S. Ambassador to Nigeria, for an intensive week-long visit. Ambassador Sanders conducted classes, seminars, workshops, and lectures and  met with students and faculty members informally throughout the week to share her practical knowledge in the areas of foreign policy, human rights, and living in a global community.





Sanders speaking with Westminster College President after delivering "New Global Landscape" keynote speech

“Dr. Robin Sanders was a perfect fit for Westminster College. Our students had a chance to meet a world-class leader with a deep knowledge of foreign affairs, helping to create better understanding and new connections between the academic and nonacademic worlds,” said Jorden Sanders, Student Government Association President. "We were delighted that Ambassador Robin Sanders had time to get to know our campus and to explore in depth how the classroom and campus relate to the broader society.”
Wesminster College President Forsythe added that his students benefitted greatly from Sanders extensive experience as a global leaders and her indepth lectures on a range of national security issues.

Click below to read Dr. Sanders public speech on the "New Global Landscape" given at the Westminster Historic Church of St. Mary.
www.http://blogitrrs.blogspot.com/2013/03/new-global-landscapeyour-role-as-global.html

Ambassador Sanders speaks at Furman College on Africa 2013

FEEEDS event

April 2 - 5, 2013
Ambassador (Dr.) Robin Renee Sanders delivered her address, "Africa 2013: The Way Ahead" on April 2, 2013 in Younts Conference Center at Furman University as part of her FEEEDS Advocacy Initiative as a Woodrow Wilson Visiting Scholar. In addition to a keynote address before a public crowd in Greenville, Sanders also spent time engaging in small group conversations and classroom lectures speaking to over 200 members of the community and Furman students. Her public address, “Africa 2013: The Way Ahead,” used a broad lens to provide a balanced view of the socio-political and economic changes in the 48 countries of Sub-Saharan Africa. Her remarks highlighted both the positive political and economic changes, and the remaining challenges as Sub-Saharan Africa  strives to move forward toward “a more perfect Continent.”  The Riley Institute and Secretary Riley noted Ambassador Sanders' positive contribution to the College, its students, and the community from her keynote speech to her classroom lectures on issues as far ranging as Africa, the new global issues such as the environment and food security. Click on link below to see video of Ambassador Sanders keynote speech at Furman College, Greenville, South Carolina on Africa 2013: The Way Ahead http://riley.furman.edu/riley/critical-issues/fellows-residence/2013-robin-sanders

The 5th BRICS Summit: Lessons for the "Developed" World

A FEEEDS Series blogspot

 Since May 2010, I have suggested re-coining the term BRICs which, as we all know, focuses on the economic prowess and growth rates of Brazil, Russia, India, China and in Africa only South Africa.  BRICA would be more inclusive of the success and influence of other African nations which are enjoying positive growth rates at 5% or more, larger than South Africa's 2012 estimated 3.5 per cent growth rate, projected to remain similar for 2013. 

Botswana, for example, has maintained a double digit growth rate for the last 10 years; Ghana is still projected to be the fastest growing economy in the region for 2013 at 8 per cent; Mozambique, Nigeria, Rwanda, Angola, Tanzania, and Zambia all enjoyed high single digit growth last year in the 5-7 per cent range, with projections to stay on course in 2013.  

Hence, the “A” in BRICA would represent these other high-GDP African countries and leave room for other Africa nations to be included in this new paradigm, or "new think" economic club. These nations will all progress forward, and build strategic alliances without the traditional "developed" world. This is a good thing, and "developed" nations, particularly the U.S., need to pay more attention. Economic alliances do breed political and strategic ones; thus, on future geo-political issues the U.S. could get left out in the cold on issues where the BRICS might align. 

A Lesson in Strategic Long-Term Planning:

In the U.S., we do not pay enough attention to long-term strategic planning; China on the other hand does, with new President Xi Jinping not missing a beat on his first foreign trip -- including not one, but three African stops.  It would also seem that Russia and Brazil get the doctrine of building long term country friendships in Africa better than we do. The U.S. is coming to the party late in building long term strategic economic relationships with Africa. We are doing better, but are not where we should be. The juxtaposition of having a group White House meeting for four African nations when the BRICS Summit was going on seemed a bit incongruous.

The just concluded 5^th BRICS Summit in Durban, South Africa, achieved its goal by further spotlighting the economic importance of the Africa region. Media and institutions from The Economist and Financial Times, to McKinsey have talked about Africa’s Rising economic leadership, especially when the rest of world is struggling - Europe's non-recovery and America's snail-paced one. But as we enter 2013, let’s recap the headline: 7 of the world’s 10 fastest growing economies are in Sub Saharan Africa (SSAfrica).  

In addition to all the presidents of BRICS countries attending, 15 African Heads of State also where in Durban.  In case you missed it, here are some of the "new think" paradigm shifting key factoids out of the Durban reported by France 24, CCTV, and Al Jazeera during the 4-day event:

BRICS Represent:

ü 25 per cent of FDI from  Russia, China and India goes to Africa;

ü 25 per cent of the world’s economy/GDP;

ü 17 per cent of global trade;

ü 50 per cent of global economic growth;

ü $200 billion trade value amongst them.  

BRICS Initiatives:

ü BRICS are creating  a Development Bank focused on infrastructure, with a common currency pool to assist with development and loans as an alternative to the IMF and other international financial institutions; where the Banks HQ is going to be remains undecided;

ü BRICS Development Bank would seek to have $100 billion in capitalization;

ü China to give Africa 20 billion in loans over next few years;

ü BRICS Business Council and BRICS Think Tank efforts further developed; and,

ü China and Brazil discuss a $30 million currency swap.

On top of the BRICS-related news, the average 2012 collective growth rate for SSAfrica is hovering between 5.8-7 per cent with the The Economist and World Bank forecasting this to be the case for the Region for the next 20 years. Banks on the Continent are also improving their macroeconomic picture with many of them making the 2013 Best Emerging Market Bank list of Global Finance Magazine, as they have improved their asset growth, profitability, strategic relationships, customer service, competitive pricing, and innovative products. For the Region, Nigeria’s ECO Bank is being hailed as the winner for the upcoming 2013 awards event.

Lean Forward: What's Next:

Of course the watch words are what is next and how will Sub-Saharan Africa's proposed economic prowess trickle down to reach its most poor. Resources in the proposed BRICS Development Bank slated for Africa's infrastructure,  agriculture, and education will need to actually reach and change the quality of life of the intended, and impact the most needy. Although the BRICS positive economic news is top of the line, we cannot lose sight of some of the staggering SSAfrica demographics:

• 1.5 billion people continue to live on $1.25 to $2.00 per day;
•   2.7 in 2011 to 2.8% in 2012 per capita rates - a small increase, when UN notes minimum rate needs to be 3% per capita just to inch above the poverty line;
• 133 million young people in the Region who cannot read;
• 239 million in sub-Saharan Africa go hungry daily; 26 per cent of this figure are children says 2011 World Hunger and Poverty Facts;
•  8.2 million children in West Africa are affected by food security or are malnourished;
• 4 of the top countries on the world list of nations with the largest economic income disparities and inequities amongst their population are in SSAfrica - Namibia, Botswana, Lesotho, and South Africa; South Africa reportedly has the highest income disparity in the world according to CCTV;
• 1 in 4 Africans only have access to electricity, and  intra-African trade is only about 10 per cent of total exports;
• 5 countries in SSAfrica where mid-ranked on the 2012 Transparency International’s (TI) Corruption Index (Botswana, Cape Verde, Mauritius, Rwanda, and the Seychelles); not a lot given that there are 48 countries; the rest of the countries fell below 50 per cent on 100 point upward scale;
• 30% of the region has paved roads or working railways, a very low percentage given the Region's vast size.
• 9-10 of the Region's countries, I would put on the political concern list because of either insecurity or governance issues (Mali, Central Africa Republic, the two Sudans, Eastern DRC, Guinea Bissau, Somalia, Cote d'Ivoire, and parts of Northeastern Nigeria; Kenya's post-election uncertainity could add it to the list).   

This is by no means an exhaustive list, but it helps keep things in perspective for the challenges, we all hope the BRICS (or BRICA) resources will address. These are also the areas that need more focus and resources from the "developed world," if it wants to  remain viable as the BRICS nation lean forward with their "new think" paradigm on how to do things and how to get things done.

 

 

Amb. Sanders Speaks on Africa 2013 @ Furman University,